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Container trade forecast to grow 10% in 2010 (JULY 30, 2010)
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World trade by all modes of transportation -- sea, air and land -- are forecast to grow 8.1 percent in 2010 and 6.9 percent in 2011, following a 7.2 percent decline in 2009, according to the latest forecast from IHS Global Insight's World Trade Service.
Containerized trade volumes at the global level are forecast to reach nearly 10 percent, with a slightly stronger recovery -- 10.6 percent -- on the mainline east/west trade lanes in 2010, before slowing over the next two years.
¡°Exports from the Far East to North America and Europe bounced back as importers began to restock their depleted inventories as sales growth renewed,¡± the analyst said. ¡°While trade growth is projected into 2011 and beyond, the pace is expected to be slower than in 2010. However, 2010 and 2011 will be banner years relative to the hardship the container industry faced in 2008 and 2009 with 3 percent and minus 8 percent growth in TEU volumes, respectively.¡±
IHS Global Insight said the outlook for bulk shipping is also improving following a decline of 2.8 percent in bulk commodity trade in 2009. The analyst forecasts bulk commodities to grow in 2010 through 2011, with the benchmark Baltic Dry Index steadily increasing since the beginning of the year (and seasonal demand should also boost bulk exports over the next quarter). The forecast increases are 10.3 percent in 2010 and 8.7 percent in 2011.
Liquid bulk trade, which includes petroleum and liquefied natural gas, has also been growing despite short-term supply issues in the U.S. Gulf Coast. The growth rate for liquid bulk global trade is forecast at 9.9 percent in 2010 and 8.4 percent in 2011, the analyst said.
Source: American Shipper+
Date Posted: 7/29/2010 10:40:35 AM
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